| Resumen: |
The International Labour Organization’s (ILO) World Social Protection Report 2024-2026 claimed that implementing universal social security in low-income countries would cost 19.8 per cent of combined GDP. This high figure has led many people to conclude that universal social security is unaffordable in low-income countries without external aid. This paper demonstrates that this conclusion is incorrect and that the actual cost of providing universal social security in low-income countries is significantly lower than the 19.8 per cent of GDP suggested by the ILO. The ILO’s methodology included a range of limitations. The main reason for the ILO’s exaggerated costs is the very high transfer values proposed for many low-income countries. For example, the transfer value suggested by the ILO for an old age pension in Sudan was US$5,559 per year, well above the US$3,949 proposed for Bulgaria, a high-income country. In fact, the transfer values proposed by the ILO for many low-income countries are higher than those used in a range of middle-income countries. Sudan alone accounted for around half of the cost of 19.8 per cent of combined GDP across low-income countries. |
