| Resumen: |
The world is currently on two divergent social protection trajectories, with high-income countries edging closer to universal coverage, while low-income countries have barely progressed since 2015. Under-investment in social protection, while not the only impediment, continues to be one of the main reasons for the low coverage rates. Public expenditure on social protection (excluding healthcare) was, on average, 13% of gross domestic product (GDP) worldwide (in 2023). This average, however, conceals enormous inequalities. While high-income countries spend 16.4% of GDP on social protection annually, upper-middle-income countries spend half of this amount (8.6%), lower-middle-income countries only spend one quarter (4.1%) and low-income countries less than one sixteenth (0.7%) (Cattaneo et al., 2024).
Recent International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates suggest that in low- and middle-income countries, there is a need to spend an additional USD 1.4 trillion or 3.3% of GDP (2024) to extend a social protection floor to all, with 2.0% of GDP required for essential healthcare and 1.3% for the five key social protection cash benefits (Cattaneo et al., 2024).1 This means that governments of low- and middle-income countries should progressively increase their social protection expenditure by 10.6% of their existing government expenditure. In low-income countries, however, the financing gap is a staggering 52.3% of GDP and a striking 310.0% of current government expenditure. This shows that closing the financing gap is not possible without a massive sea-change in the domestic resource mobilization efforts of countries as well as in the global financial architecture so it can support, rather than hinder, national efforts. |
