| Resumen: |
The global outlook for labour markets deteriorated significantly during 2022. Emerging geopolitical tensions, the Ukraine conflict, an uneven recovery from the pandemic, and ongoing bottlenecks in supply chains have created the conditions for a stagflationary episode, the first period of simultaneously high inflation and low growth since the 1970s. Policymakers face a challenging trade-off as they deal with elevated inflation in an environment of incomplete jobs recovery. Most countries have not yet returned to the levels of employment and hours worked seen at the end of 2019, before the outbreak of the COVID-19 health crisis. Yet, a series of supply shocks, predominantly in food and commodities markets, have raised producer prices, causing spikes in consumer price inflation and pushing major central banks into a more restrictive policy stance. In the absence of corresponding increases in labour incomes, the costof-living crisis directly threatens the livelihoods of households and risks depressing aggregate demand. Many countries have accumulated a significant amount of debt, in part to address the severe fallout from the pandemic. The risk of a global debt crisis therefore looms large, jeopardizing the fragile recovery in many frontier markets. |
