| Resumen: |
Background: In the past few years, Brazil has implemented some of the world`s largest Conditional Cash Transfers(Bolsa Familia Program -BFP), Social Pensions(Benefício de Prestação Continuada -BPC), and Primary Health Care(Family Health Strategy –FHS). We evaluated their comprehensive impact on morbidity and mortality indicators over the last two decades. We then forecasted their mitigation effects on the adverse health impact of the economic crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methods: In the retrospective impact evaluation, we used fixed-effects negative binomial models with a cohort of Brazilian municipalities from 2004-19 to estimate the impact of BFP, BPC, and FHS coverage on hospitalizations and mortality, adjusted for all relevant demographic, social, and economic factors. Subsequently, we integrated the longitudinal dataset and parameters with validated dynamic microsimulation models, projecting hospitalization and mortality trends up to 2030 according to different intensities and durations of the economic crisis, and alternative policy responses. |
