| Resumen: |
The world’s under-18 population will only modestly increase between 2010 and 2025, but its composition and concentration will change markedly. The share and numbers of children living in the world’s poorest regions and countries will continue to grow rapidly. The child population in sub-Saharan Africa is burgeoning: By mid-century, 1 in every 3 births – and almost 1 in every 3 children under 18 – will be African. Among countries, there will continue to be an increasing concentration of under-5 deaths in sub-Saharan Africa, in pockets of poverty and marginalization in populous lower-middle-income countries and in the least developed nations. Within countries, there is likely to be an increasing concentration of under-5 deaths in poor and marginalized provinces, households and social groups. Life expectancy at birth will increase steadily throughout the century, and gaps in life expectancy between regions will continue to narrow. In the developing world, children born since 2000 are the first generation whose average life expectancy at birth will be 65 – the current international age for retirement in many high-income economies. Overall dependency ratios, currently at their lowest level since the 1970s, will begin to rise, with falling child dependency ratios across the world offset by sharply increasing old age dependency – notably in China. With a growing old-age dependency ratio, one of the biggest risks to children is a transfer of essential resources away from them, as increasingly total dependency ratios stretch govenment and family resources ever thinner in coming years. Given these shifts, it is vital that government services take into account projected demographic shifts when planning essential social services for children. |
