| Resumen: |
Recent empirical studies suggest that youth bulges are associated with an increased risk of political violence. However, governments are to some extent able to reduce this risk through the provision of better opportunities for young people, primarily by providing education. The level of secondary education appears to have a clearly pacifying effect on large youth bulges in low and middle income countries, although the effect appears to be contingent on structural economic factors.
Furthermore, the importance of youth bulges in causing political violence is expected to fade in most parts of the world over the next decades because of declining fertility. The general relationship between age structure and conflict is weakened as countries experience declining fertility rates and become positioned to take advantage of their young age structures and ensuing demographic dividends. Many countries are currently moving in this direction. However, for countries that will continue to experience high fertility levels and large youth shares for years to come, especially countries in the Middle East, Africa and parts of Asia, the potential for conflict will continue to be a cause of concern.
In order to avoid instability and violence in particular, the focus should be on improving economic opportunities for young people, particularly by providing employment or educational opportunities for youth in periods of economic decline. While expanding opportunities for education generally pacify youth cohorts, some evidence suggest that as opportunities for higher education are expanded, the lack of corresponding employment opportunities for highly educated youth may contribute to future instability.
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